Blog The Beach

Tropical Storm Fay has been an unpredictable and defiant rainmaker. Constantly referred to as a minor storm and expected to develop into only a “minimal” hurricane, the storm has caused far more damage than Floridians expected.

Where did the forecast fall short?

• Fay was heavily promoted as a storm that would run up the west coast. Sure, it was noted that the storm could deviate notably from that track, but that was the most likely scenario. Instead, Fay took an early right hook and slammed into the lower southwest coast. Can you say “Hurricane Charlie? Most of us veteran hurricane survivors were not surprised by this at all.
• Fay was expected to immediately begin to weaken after it made landfall. In fact, after moving over land, Fay became better organized and the sustained winds increased to 60 mph.
• Fay was expected to drop 5 to 10 inches of rain. Instead, some areas have received 25 inches of rain in 24 hours.

Back in the early 1980’s, when I lived in Bradenton, one September we got 17 inches of rain over a 3 day period. Everything was so flooded and saturated that schools were closed because the buses and cars could not pass through the flooded streets. All drainage canals were overflowing. I can only imagine what 25 inches of rain must be like. Florida normally only receives about 56 inches of rain during an entire year.

Coming ashore in the Marco Island / Naples area packing wind gusts up to 86 miles per hour, and bringing a deluge of rain, Fay left thousands without power and made roads impassable with flooding. On the west coast in St. Petersburg where I live, we have received almost no measurable rain from Fay. Clouds, yes; a cooling breeze, yes; rain, just a few drops.

People were prepared for wind and storm surge, but were surprised by the extent of the flooding from rainfall. I think the damage, when tallied up, will be incredible. Much of the flooding was inland in areas not considered flood zones. I’ll bet that many of the flood damaged homes don’t carry flood insurance. Ouch!

As I remarked in my free beach safety e-book: “The damage caused in most areas affected by a hurricane will be much less than people expect, but in some areas, the damage will be far greater than anyone could have ever imagined.”

The indecisive tropical storm Fay has finally wandered ashore at Cape Romano, just south of Marco Island, early Tuesday morning, August 19th. Bringing 40 to 50 mph winds and heavy rains, the storm has left 28,000 people without power in Collier County and has caused flooding in the Marco Island and Naples area.

The entire west coast of Florida was on high alert because of the projected path being right up the west coast. But Fay took a sharp north turn over Cuba, and then an early right hook, taking it away from Florida’s west coast. I’m glad, partly because I just planted 4 young trees in the front yard and wasn’t looking forward to having them thrashed.

Surfers will be disappointed that Fay didn’t come into the Gulf, but there will likely be more storms between now and November.

Fay still has the potential of more flooding, tornadoes, and wind damage to mobile homes, so tonights news will be filled with storm stories. That’s Florida.

The National Hurricane center is indicating that conditions are very favorable for Fay to develop into a stronger storm, unlike last summer when high winds in the upper atmoshphere literally ripped storms apart before they could turn into a hurricane.

This is from the 5am Aug 16 discussion;

…AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN…THE
STORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

That is pretty significant, I think, that the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic have not broken up this still relatively weak storm.

However, they also recognize the uncertainties in 4 or 5 day forecast track, which everyone is focusing on because it’s all over the news. The hurricane center points out the differences in the hurricane track forecasting computer models:

THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS…WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
SHORTER TERM…THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT
THE PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES.

Also, the forecast of storm strength is very much uncertain:

INTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT…BUT IN THIS CASE IS MADE
EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…SO THE
MORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER…THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME…AND VICE VERSA.

Keep an eye on Fay.

The news is all abuzz with tropical storm Fay. The computer models have it zeroed in on the west coast and the track is looking rather like Charlie’s in 2004. But as we all know, the 5 day forecast for ANYTHING is notoriously inaccurate. A lot can happen between Friday and Monday.

Will I be grabbing some extra bottled water this weekend? And some batteries and food that doesn’t need refridgeration? Yea, probably so. Nothing worse than running around at the last minute and finding nothing but empty shelves.

This could end up being a real test for those T-groins at Upham Beach.