Tropical Storm Fay has been an unpredictable and defiant rainmaker. Constantly referred to as a minor storm and expected to develop into only a “minimal” hurricane, the storm has caused far more damage than Floridians expected.
Where did the forecast fall short?
- Fay was heavily promoted as a storm that would run up the west coast. Sure, it was noted that the storm could deviate notably from that track, but that was the most likely scenario. Instead, Fay took an early right hook and slammed into the lower southwest coast. Can you say “Hurricane Charlie? Most of us veteran hurricane survivors were not surprised by this at all.
- Fay was expected to immediately begin to weaken after it made landfall. In fact, after moving over land, Fay became better organized and the sustained winds increased to 60 mph.
- Fay was expected to drop 5 to 10 inches of rain. Instead, some areas have received 25 inches of rain in 24 hours.
Back in the early 1980’s, when I lived in Bradenton, one September we got 17 inches of rain over a 3 day period. Everything was so flooded and saturated that schools were closed because the buses and cars could not pass through the flooded streets. All drainage canals were overflowing. I can only imagine what 25 inches of rain must be like. Florida normally only receives about 56 inches of rain during an entire year.
Coming ashore in the Marco Island / Naples area packing wind gusts up to 86 miles per hour, and bringing a deluge of rain, Fay left thousands without power and made roads impassable with flooding. On the west coast in St. Petersburg where I live, we have received almost no measurable rain from Fay. Clouds, yes; a cooling breeze, yes; rain, just a few drops.
People were prepared for wind and storm surge, but were surprised by the extent of the flooding from rainfall. I think the damage, when tallied up, will be incredible. Much of the flooding was inland in areas not considered flood zones. I’ll bet that many of the flood damaged homes don’t carry flood insurance. Ouch!
As I remarked in my free beach safety e-book: “The damage caused in most areas affected by a hurricane will be much less than people expect, but in some areas, the damage will be far greater than anyone could have ever imagined.”
