May 17, 2010 Deepwater Horizon Response Situation Report as of noon. (opens as a pdf file).
Summary:
There is no oil expected on any Florida beaches within the next 72 hours.
The oil plume is currently located 75 miles southwest of Pensacola, 175 miles from Port St. Joe, and 260 miles from Saint Petersburg, FL.
The plume was reported by the Deepwater Horizon report to be 20 miles north of the Loop Current. However the Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service satellite images clearly show that some of the oil is already caught up in the Loop Current and is moving toward the southeast. It is not known how much of the oil will eventually end up in the loop current.
Note that the Coast Guard and NOAA both continue to maintain that the oil has not yet entered the Loop Current.
I heard on the local news this evening that oil could be passing through the Florida Keys within 10 to 15 days. This does NOT mean that we will have oil on Florida beaches, but the closer it gets, the more of a concern it becomes.
Update: Tuesday May 18, 2010: It has been reported that tar balls have been found in the Florida Keys at Fort Zachary Taylor State Park beach. The tar balls have been sent to a lab for testing to see where they came from. Researchers say that it is possible, but unlikely that these Key West tar balls originated from the Deep Horizon BP well. (This may become a moot point since the actual oil from the spill may reach the Keys before the lab results come back.)
Further Update Tuesday May 18, 6:30 pm: Audubon of Florida has posted the analysis from the University of South Florida researchers (pdf file) which illustrates with maps the forecast movement of the oil through the Florida Straits and up the Atlantic coast, passing very close to the Miami beaches, possibly within a week or so.
BP’s Deepwater Horizon Response notes that in the last two years there have been over 1,200 reported “petroleum incidents” along Florida’s beaches and waterways, so the presence of a few tarballs is not unusual. (Let’s hope that a few tarballs is all we get.)
Go and enjoy the beaches!
Image from www.roffs.com/deepwaterhorizon.html Click the image to visit their site. The image shows the dark tail of oil being pulled into the northern edge of the Gulf Loop Current.
