The National Hurricane center is indicating that conditions are very favorable for Fay to develop into a stronger storm, unlike last summer when high winds in the upper atmoshphere literally ripped storms apart before they could turn into a hurricane.
This is from the 5am Aug 16 discussion;
…AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN…THE
STORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
That is pretty significant, I think, that the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic have not broken up this still relatively weak storm.
However, they also recognize the uncertainties in 4 or 5 day forecast track, which everyone is focusing on because it’s all over the news. The hurricane center points out the differences in the hurricane track forecasting computer models:
THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS…WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
SHORTER TERM…THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE CENTER
OF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT
THE PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK…ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES.
Also, the forecast of storm strength is very much uncertain:
INTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT…BUT IN THIS CASE IS MADE
EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…SO THE
MORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER…THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME…AND VICE VERSA.
Keep an eye on Fay.